ARIMA MODELI YORDAMIDA QISHLOQ VA NOQISHLOQ XOʻJALIKLARIDAN OLINADIGAN DAROMADNI BAHOLASH

Abstract

This article analyzes the possibilities of using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model in the economic and statistical assessment and forecasting of income from agricultural and non-agricultural activities. The study studies the dynamics of income indicators based on time series, and assesses the stationarity, selection of parameters, and adequacy of the model. The possibilities of short- and medium-term forecasting of income from agricultural and non-agricultural sectors using the ARIMA model are shown. The results obtained are justified as having practical significance in analyzing rural income, making economic decisions, and developing industry development strategies.